Summary and Info
Futures markets frequently hinge upon the expectations of traders and the ability of people operating within them to make maximum use of all available information. The rational expectations hypothesis has emerged as the most powerful analytical tool for examining the formation and consequences of expectations in economic activity. It therefore has a particular bearing on the study of futures markets. Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets compares and contrasts rational expectations with the efficient market hypothesis. While some economists have been unable to draw any meaningful distinction between the two approaches, most have agreed that they should be considered separately. Since both are concerned with exploiting information to the fullest capacity, they both face similar problems. A team of international economists contribute original and specially commissioned chapters which answer these issues. A wide range of financial and commodity markets, including currencies, interest rates, livestock, grains and wool, are analyzed in an attempt to discover whether traders in futures markets use all relevant information and whether this is reflected in prices.